Much vaunted economic growth fails to ease poverty

The Arroyo government’s blueprint, the Medium Term Philippine Development Plan, says its basic task “is to fight poverty by building prosperity for the greatest number of the Filipino people."

The government had set out to reduce poverty by half: “Bring down the incidence of poverty from 34 percent to 17 percent [among population] by 2010 (at least 20 percent.)" In the President Arroyo’s last SONA, she said “the average GDP growth from 2001 to the first quarter of 2009 is the highest in 43 years." And in the next breath, Arroyo said poverty incidence has gone down. “Bumaba ang bilang ng mga nagsasabing mahirap sila sa 47% mula 59%. Maski lumaki ang ating populasyon, nabawasan ng dalawang milyon ang bilang ng mahihirap," she said. Hearing this, economist Prof. Solita Monsod in an interview with GMA News said, “I almost fell off my chair. The latest objective data we have is based on 2006, and official figures show that the number or poor people increase by almost 3 million people… Where she got her data, I have absolutely no clue." Poverty incidence shows the number families with income less than the poverty threshold, or with income less than the cost of minimum basic food & non-food needs. The 2006 poverty data of the National Statistical Coordination Board, the latest so far, show poverty incidence among population, or among individuals, at 32.9 percent – still a far cry from the targeted 17 percent by next year. In fact, poverty incidence even worsened from 2003 to 2006: Poverty incidence among population increased by 2.9 percent, and poverty incidence among families increased by 2.5 percent. This translates to an estimated number of poor individuals increasing by 3.78 million while the estimated number of poor families rose by more than 650,000 from 2003 to 2006. The population growth rate during this time was at 2 percent. Poverty incidence among population

	2000	2003	2006
Poverty incidence (among population)	*33.0	30.0	32.9
Estimated number (among population)	25,472,782	23,836,104	27,616,888
Source: NSCB

** 34 percent was the latest available poverty incidence data when the National Development Agenda goal was set; the NSCB later finalized poverty incidence in 2000 at 33 percent. Poverty incidence among families

	2000	2003	2006
Poverty incidence (among families)	27.5	24.4	26.9
Estimated number (among families)	4,146,663	4,022,695	4,677,305
Source: NSCB

In an email interview, Joel Saracho of Global Call to Action Against Poverty, calls the President to task, saying, “Not only is (President)GMA not meeting the goals, we are in fact a lot poorer now." “We need not even cite statistics to see that poverty is more rampant… we need only look around and see how childen vending sampaguita and rags are multiplying fast in the streets, walk at night and see the homeless occupying sidewalks," Saracho said. Self-rated poverty If the self-rated poverty surveys of private organizations were any indication, the poverty situation was indeed not getting better. The Social Weather Station’s self-rated poverty figure was at 59% when PGMA took office during the first quarter of 2001. This meant 59 percent of families—more than half-- saw themselves as poor. Self-rated poverty figures of the SWS hit its highest or worst during the early years of President Arroyo’s term, reaching 66 percent in 2001 and 2002. It dropped to its lowest or best figure of 46 percent during the 2nd quarter of 2004 and the 4th quarter of 2007. Self-rated poverty last reached to 40 percent-level based on the SWS surveys during the early part of Cory’s presidency.

	1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
2000	59	54	57	56
2001	59	66	63	60
2002	58	66	66	61
2003	59	53	62	64
2004	58	46	53	48
2005	48	57	49	57
2006	55	59	51	52
2007	53	47	52	46
2008	50	59	52	52
2009	47
Source: Social Weather Station

In Pulse Asia’s self-rated poverty surveys from 2000 to 2009, the percentage of families rating themselves as poor or very poor has been consistently more than half – the lowest, or best figure, at 57 percent and the highest, or worst, at 75 percent. In the most recent self-rated poverty survey in February this year, 70% of families considered themselves poor or very poor. This is six percentage points higher than when Arroyo took office in early 2001. This means more families considered themselves poor now, nearing the end of Arroyo’s term, than when she started.

Survey Dates	Very Poor/ Poor	On the Line	Well-off/ Wealthy
Mar 2000	62	30	8
Jul 2000	64	26	10
Oct 2000	67	24	9
Dec 2000	67	24	9
Mar 2001	64	25	11
Jun 2001	57	37	6
Oct 2001	73	18	9
Dec 2001	66	26	8
Apr 2002	65	25	10
Jul 2002	69	24	7
Nov 2002	70	22	8
Apr 2003	74	17	8
Aug 2003	69	21	10
Nov 2003	64	22	14
Jan 2004	68	18	14
Feb 2004	69	18	14
Jun 2004	70	17	13
Oct 2004	70	16	14
Nov 2004	74	15	10
Mar 2005	70	17	13
Jun 2005	71	18	11
Jul 2005	73	17	10
Oct 2005	75	15	10
Mar 2006	74	10	16
Jun 2006	67	20	12
Nov 2006	67	20	13
Mar 2007	69	15	16
Jun 2007	75	13	12
Oct 2007	68	18	14
Mar 2008	71	14	15
Jun 2008	73	21	6
Oct 2008	69	16	15
Feb 2009	70	14	16
Source: Pulse Asia

Hunger surveys Since 2001 to present, the number of people saying that they went hungry has been varied with the trend mostly favoring the increase in numbers. In 2000, Estrada's last full year in office, the highest report of hunger based on the SWS hunger survey was at 12.7 percent. This means 12.7 percent of families-- or 13 in 100 families -- said they experienced involuntary hunger. When Arroyo took office in 2001, the SWS hunger figures showed 16.1 percent or 16 in 100 families. During Arroyo’s term, SWS hunger figures reached its best in 2003 with only 5.1 percent of families reporting hunger. But since the second quarter of 2004, the hunger figures have been consistently double-digit. The worst hunger figures in almost nine years is reflected in 2008, with 23.7 percent of families reporting involuntary hunger. The SWS hunger survey in 2008 was the only year during Arroyo’s term when there was a steady rise in the number of families reporting hunger from first to the last quarter. 2008 was the year when the country experienced a drastic increase in the prices of rice and petroleum products.

	1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
2000	10.5	11.2	8.8	12.7
2001	16.1	9.8	9.3	10.4
2002	11.1	11.5	8.8	9
2003	6.7	6.6	5.1	9.4
2004	7.4	13	15.1	11.5
2005	13	12	15.5	16.7
2006	16.9	13.9	16.9	19
2007	19	14.7	21.5	16.2
2008	15.7	16.3	18.4	23.7
2009	15.5
Source: Social Weather Station